Kano malilipol sa bird flu,health,science

THURSDAY, March 30 (HealthDay News) -- If a bird-flu pandemic does hit the United States, it may well start in California and spread across the country in just two to four weeks.

And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.
That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model created by researchers at the U.S.
National Institutes of Health' name=c1> SEARCHNews News Photos Images Web' name=c3> National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center. And while the results of that computer model should be interpreted with caution, it is based on data from ordinary flu epidemics for the last three decades, said study author Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director for research at the center.
"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," Miller said. "That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."
That's why measures to keep people at home could slow the spread of infection, Miller said. Another finding in the study is that states with large populations, such as California, are more likely to reach epidemic levels of the flu at the same time than less-populous states, where transmission tends to be more erratic, he said.
So California, the most populous state, would be the most logical place for a pandemic to start, Miller said. Another factor pointing toward California is that bird -- also called avian -- flu is expected to arrive from Asia, he said.
As for the speed of spread, the estimate is based on ordinary epidemics. "What we see is that epidemics with more pathogenic viruses spread more quickly, two to four weeks versus five to seven weeks for less pathogenic viruses nationwide," Miller said.
The findings appear in the March 31 issue of the journal Science.
The Fogarty researchers used epidemiological data on seasonal flu epidemics that have occurred yearly in the United States since 1972. They connected that information with data from the
Census Bureau' name=c1> SEARCHNews News Photos Images Web' name=c3> Census Bureau and the federal Department of Transportation, looking at variations in yearly epidemics from state to state and links with local flows of people to workplaces.
Bird flu' name=c1> SEARCHNews News Photos Images Web' name=c3> Bird flu is pathogenic, but it does not yet spread easily from person to person; close exposure to an infected bird is needed to cause a human infection. The danger will come when, and if, a mutation makes human-to-human transmission easy.
Since 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. More than 100 people have died after coming into contact with infected poultry.
The model developed by the Fogarty researchers can go just so far in predicting what might happen if such a mutation occurs, Miller said. This model notably doesn't include previous pandemics, just ordinary epidemics, and a pandemic might have different characteristics, he said.
Still, the model can help plan for ordinary, predictable epidemics by showing how they start and spread, Miller said. It's also not the first of its kind, he said: "We did a similar model to explain the spread of measles."
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pacman-morales 3

head: Morales wasak ang mukha sa electronic bout
kicker: Pacman- El Terrible 3 e- bout
BANNER: MORALES DUGUAN
SA sobrang kasabikan ng mga Pinoy, ipinasok na rin sa computer fight games si Manny Pacquiao kung saan inireto siya sa kanyang kaaway na mortal na si Erik Morales.
Masasaksihan na ang electronic Pacman sa Xbox 360 kontra kay computerized Erik Morales sa Fight Night Round 3 mula sa diskarte ni Kiven Codamon.
Gusto mo bang matuklasan agad ang magiging diskarte at resulta ng ikatlong paghaharap nina Pacman at Erik gamit computer technique tulad sa PlayStation 2 version—blow-by-blow?
Narito panoorin natin:
Matapos pumindot ng “Play Now” option, siyempre, pipiliin si Pacquiao at huhugutin si Morales na kanyang makakalaban. Mapapansin dito na higit na maliksi at mabilis si Morales kompara kay Pacman pero higit namang may puwersa ang suntok at matibay ang panga. Mistulang totoo rin ang boxing arena at nakatutuwang pagmasdan ang eksena sa mga susunod na henerasyon.
ROUND 1: Kapwa sumusundot ng jabs ang dalawa, pero nakasisingit ng suntok sa bodega si Pacman kung saan inaasahang iindain at magpapahina kay Morales. Tinangka ni Pacman na paulanan ng kombinasyon si Morales pero hinilamusan siya nito ng matitinding counterpunches na bumalandra sa kanyang mukha. (Sa Fight Nighr Round 3, hindi puwede ang agarang palitan ng mga suntok)
Umatras nang bahagya si Pacman pero agad siyang pinabaunan ng matutulis na jabs. Kakaiba ang estilong ito ni Morales.(Sa FNR3, maaari mong igawa ng estilo ang napili mong boksingero. At kung gagamitin nang espesyal na kaliwang suntok, dapat ay ibuwelo mo ito at makadikit muna sa kalaban.Maari ring maging matibay ka sa pagtanggap ng suntok o biglang makasagot ng upak.). Sa kasong ito, jabs lamang ang ginamit ng “operator” ni Pacman upang idiskaril ang ratsadang kombinasyon ni Morales.
ROUND 2: Dumugo agad ang ilong ni Morales sa ikalawang round kasabay ng matutulis na jabs at sakyod sa katawan at mukha. Tinadtad ng suntok ang mukha ni Morales. At iyon mismo ang ipinapayo ng “corner” --durugin ang mukha at padalasin ang jabs, kung bago ka lamang naglalaro ng ganitong electronic fight games, kailangang sundin mo ang payo ng “corner”.
ROUND 3: Patas ang palitan ng suntok sa third round. Itinago na ni El Terrible ang kanyang mukha mula sa atake ng jabs at sakyod na suntok. May hiwa na sa kaliwang mata si Morales, pero hindi ito sapat upang itigil ang laban.Tinangkang tapusin ni Pacman ang laban, pero matatalim ang isinagot na suntok ng Mexican hero.
Manalo kaya si Pacman kay El Terrible, tulad sa aktuwal na bakbakang magaganap sa Las Vegas? Maipaghiganti kaya ni Morales ang kanyang pagkatalo sa huling engkuwentro?
Interesado ba kayo, batay sa http://www.inq7.com/, maaari ninyong sundan ang labang ito sa May issue ng GAME!, isang gaming magazine mula sa Hinge Inquirer Publications—itutuloy ni Kiven ang kanyang diskarte kung saan minamanok niya si Pacman.(Halaw ni Donn Ambrocio)

US PASOK NA

UNTI-UNTI nang sumasali ang United States sa kaguluhan sa Thailand at Pilipinas.Sa totoo lang, kaya lumalabas ang ulat tungkol sa pagkakasangkot ng CPP-NPA-NDF sa isyu ng pag-agawa sa poder ay upang manatiling sinusuportahan ng America si Ate Glo.Kapag kasi walang “communist factor”, hindi tutulong ang mga Kano upang maidepensa o matulungan ang administrasyong Arroyo.Ibig sabihin, kapag nga naman nanalo ang alyansa ng Magdalo at CPP-NPA, eh di nga naman mae-etsapuwera ang US sa pagkontrol sa gobyerno.Hanggang isinasali sa isyu ang CPP-NPA, kalmante lang ang administrasyong Arroyo dahil nakatitiyak silang hindi siya iiwanan ni Uncle Sam.Lingid sa kaalaman ng iba, at taliwas sa ipinagyayabang ng mga promotor ng Edsa Revolution, hindi ang People’s Power ang nagpatalsik kay dating Pangulong Marcos.Saksi ang buong mundo at sambayanang Pinoy na puwersahang isakay ng mga Kano si Marcos sa helikopter at kidnapin patungo sa Hawaii.Nagbubulag-bulagan ang mga nagyayabang na sila ang bayani ng Edsa!Tuwing gugunitain ang anibersaryo, tinatakpan ang mahalagang papel at garapal na PANGHIHIMASOK ng US sa takbo ng gobyerno ng Pilipinas.Iyan din mismo ang kahulugan kung bakit detalyado ang ulat sa international na lathalain na TIME MAGAZINE kaugnay ng plano sa kudeta.Malinaw dito na aktuwal na nang NANGHIHIMASOK ang Kano sa isyung politikal sa bansa.Iyan ang pinakamalaking nerbiyos ng Malacanang.Ano ang palagay ninyo?----30--